Population

Amarillo's most valuable resource is its people. Because of this, nearly every major planning decision is based on an analysis of the City's population. In order to project the future needs of the Amarillo area, an examination must be made of the people who presently live here, as well as of the changes that appear to be occurring in the population in general. Changes in population may alter the demand for future infrastructure, such as utilities, transportation facilities, schools, parks, community facilities, private businesses, and other functions which occur within the City and associated counties. Detailed population information is also utilized when determining the amount of land needed for, and the geographical location of future residential, recreational, commercial, and industrial land uses and activities. Ultimately, population characteristics - past, present, and future - are key indices of an area's ability to expand and adjust to changes in technological and economic trends.

Population

The Amarillo Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), Potter County, Randall County, and the City of Amarillo all grew in population at a much faster rate than the State of Texas until 1960, as shown in Figure 3.1, Population Growth 1890-1999. This table indicates a decline in the growth rate of the MSA, Potter County, and the City of Amarillo in 1970, which was largely attributable to the closing of the Amarillo Air Force Base in 1968. It is estimated that the closing of the air base resulted in a decrease in the Amarillo population by approximately 30,000 people. This number included enlisted and officer personnel, their families, and civilian personnel directly and indirectly associated with base operations.

Construction and subdivision platting activity in the mid 1970's helped Amarillo recover. The Amarillo MSA grew by 20.3% during the 1970's and by 8.0% during the 1980's. This was only 1.8% behind the nation's growth rate during the past decade. In 1990, the population of the Amarillo MSA was 187,547. Of the 25 MSA's in Texas, the Amarillo MSA ranked 13th in population in 1990. This is the same position it held in both 1970 and 1980. The 1999 population estimate for the Amarillo MSA is 222,122 as prepared and adopted by the Amarillo Population Technical Committee.

Potter County declined in population by 21.7% during the 1960's. This was due primarily to the closing of the air base. During the 1970's, Potter County had a 9% increase in population. By 1990, Potter County had a total population of 97,874. Due to out-migration, this number was 763 fewer than during 1980. Potter County's estimated 1999 population is 106,944.

Randall County, on the other hand, has continued to grow even in the wake of the air base closing. During the 1960's and 1970's, Randall County grew by 59% and 39% respectively. Randall County's 1990 population was 89,673. Although Randall County's growth rate during the 1980's was not as high as in previous decades, the county did manage to grow at a higher rate

than both the nation and the state of Texas. This pattern has clearly established Randall County as the prominent area of growth for the next several decades. Randall County's estimated 1999 population is 115,178.

Figure 3.1

The City of Amarillo, with a 1980 population of 149,230, demonstrated a remarkable recovery over the previous decade's eight percent population loss. The decade of the 1980's posted nearly an 18% gain in population, and according to the Census Bureau, the City of Amarillo's 1990 population stood at 157,615, an increase of nearly six percent over 1980. In 1990, the City of Amarillo was the 11th most populous city in Texas. The City of Amarillo's 1999 estimated population is 173,075.

There has been rapid population growth in the west and southwest areas of the City. This has occurred while the central portions of Amarillo have experienced population decline. In 1980, the center of Amarillo's population was located at the intersection of Interstate Highway 40 and Georgia Street. Over the last 20 years, the center of the City's population has been moving to the southwest. In 1990, the center of population was located at S.W. 26th and Georgia. It is anticipated that this southwestward trend will continue through the end of the century.

During the 1980's, eight of the 29 census tracts which gained population within the City of Amarillo doubled their 1980 population. These census tracts were located on the eastern, western, and southwestern periphery of the City. Thirty-five census tracts, located primarily in the central portion of the City, have lost population since 1980.

During the past decade, about 40% of Amarillo's census tracts have declined in population. The importance of this trend has become evident in many areas of Amarillo. Some areas of the City are experiencing a reduction in population through out-migration, an overall decline in birth rates, a reduction in housing stock, and the tendency for fewer persons to reside in each household.

While some Amarillo census tracts have lost population since 1980, they have not yet reached a point where services and facilities must be reduced. However, if reductions in population continue, adjustments in the level of services for public and community facilities can be expected.

While those parts of the City with a declining population base are certain to face problems in the future, those areas with growing numbers are also being forced to make adjustments. There will be a need to increase public funding in areas facing rapid development in order to add schoolrooms, new schools, and to increase the availability of other public services. The extension of City services, such as police and fire protection, sanitation collection, and utilities into growing areas of the City requires response by City departments so the needs of these rapidly developing areas can be met.

The population of Amarillo changes as a result of two factors: the difference between births and deaths (natural increase) and the migration of people to and from the area. People moving into the City is referred to as "in migration" and people moving away from the City is referred to as "out migration". "Net migration" is the difference between in and out migration. The movement of population to and from Amarillo can be computed by comparing the effects of natural increase to the total population change determined by the Bureau of the Census as shown in Figure 3.3, Amarillo Area Migration, below.

As Figure 3.3 indicates, between 1970-1990 approximately 16% of the Amarillo MSA's population increase was due to in-migration while over half of Randall County's population increase was due to in-migration. For the City of Amarillo, however, 3% of the population (considered to be from natural increase) out-migrated. This is even more drastic for Potter County, where almost twice the number of people out-migrated.

The future population of the Amarillo area is dependent upon five major factors, of which the last two have an impact on migration.

• Number of current residents

• Net migration

• Natural population increase (births minus deaths)

• Resources of the business community

• Understanding the future and natural resources of the area

 

Although no particular population projection method is consistently more accurate than others, some methods provide more detailed consideration of factors affecting population growth. For slow growth areas and short term projections of five to ten years, extrapolation models (straightline graph, linear extrapolation, and annual growth rate projections) generally fare no better or worse than other methods. These methods, by and large, are based on historical patterns of net population change, and simplicity of calculation is the primary advantage.

The most complex projection methods performed by the Amarillo Planning Department are the Cohort Survival Method (natural increase only) and the Cohort-Component Method (with migration). These methods utilize individual components of the population to arrive at the projections and are expected to be valid for longer term projections for up to twenty years. Although complexity does not guarantee accuracy, projections using parameters such as age-sex groupings, birth rates, death rates, and migration rates are more meaningful because they evaluate each parameter separately.

Since political, economic, and social changes for the next twenty years are unknown, utilizing projections in terms of low, moderate, and high growth estimates is strongly recommended. By expressing projections in terms of a range of possibilities, the figures can be periodically reviewed in light of the changes affecting growth in the Amarillo area. The City of Amarillo population projection figures are detailed in Figure 3.4, City of Amarillo Population Projections, below.

In addition to other population characteristics, the changing age distribution is a good indicator of a community's composition. The primary changes in the age distribution of Amarillo's population between 1960-1990 reveal three essential trends. The first of these is that there is a decreasing proportion of persons under 20 years of age. This is due to a decrease in birth rates over the past two decades. The second trend is that there has been an increasing number of older persons. This has resulted from a continued decline in death rates, as well as from the aging of the baby boom generation. The third and final trend in Amarillo's age composition is that there has been an increase in the number of persons between the ages of 20 and 44.

The increased number of persons 65 years and older, and their increased proportion of the population, has resulted in the need for more attention to be given to the issues facing this segment of society. Such issues include different types of pension and retirement plans, special housing facilities, institutional facilities for the aged, and the expansion of senior citizen recreational services. Due to their increasing numbers, considerable political strength has been gained by the aged through their expanded numbers.

Racial and Ethnic Composition

Five major race classifications and one ethnic characteristic classification are distinguished by the Bureau of the Census: White; Black; American Indian, Eskimo or Aleut; Asian or Pacific Islander; Other races; and Hispanic origin (ethnic characteristic).

Amarillo has historically been populated mostly by White persons. In 1980, Whites made up 89% of Amarillo's total population. The 1990 Census indicates that the White population dropped to approximately 83% of the population. This can be attributed to two factors: out-migration and the large increase in the Hispanic population. The loss of persons to out-migration can be attributed to the loss of jobs in the Amarillo area during the 1980's.

Although the Census Bureau considered Hispanic origin as an ethnic characteristic in 1980 and 1990, Hispanic origin figures have been adjusted by the Census Bureau so they may be compared on a racial basis. Hispanic origin, when considered as a race, is the principal non-White minority group in Amarillo, and makes up 85% of the total non-White population. In comparison, persons of Hispanic origin comprised 6.6% of the City's population in 1970, and by 1980, accounted for 9% of the City's population. In 1990, persons of Hispanic origin comprised 15% of Amarillo's population.

The Hispanic population is not only the largest non-White population in Amarillo, it is also the fastest growing segment of the population. Between 1970 and 1990, the Hispanic population almost tripled in number and outpaced all other racial group's growth rates by nearly 100%.

The City of Amarillo's Black population accounted for 5.3% of the total population in 1970 and 5.5% in 1980. In 1990, Blacks made up 6% of the population. This represented a total growth in the Black community of 41% between 1970 and 1990.

In Amarillo, the Asian or Pacific Islander population consists primarily of Laotian and Vietnamese persons. There were 2,960 Asian or Pacific Islanders in the City in 1990, which represented 1.9% of the total population. This was a 94% increase in this racial population during the past decade.

In 1990, there were 1,187 American Indians, Eskimos or Aleutians in the City of Amarillo. This was an 80% increase for this population segment since 1980. This population group accounted for less than 1% of Amarillo's total population in 1990.

Goals and Policies

The careful evaluation of Amarillo's population characteristics is an important part of the planning process. Population affects the demand for the future development of utilities, transportation, schools, parks, businesses, etc., as well as the amount of land for each land use and activity. Of course, increased population also means more growth, and more growth requires proper planning and decision-making.

Long Range Goal: Attract people to live in Amarillo by providing opportunities, developments, community services, natural environment, and a quality of life better than that which may be found in other areas.

Policies:

1. Remain non-discriminatory in decision-making with regard to age, sex, income group, marital status, national origin or disability.

2. Provide City services and facilities to accommodate all segments of the population; young and old, men and women, etc.

3. Provide adequate streets, utilities, schools, parks, public protection, community services, shopping facilities, amusements and recreation, and other amenities of community life to attract new residents to the City.

4. Market the culture and aesthetics of the Amarillo area to attract more residents and visitors to Amarillo.

5. Place a high priority on projects and programs which generate and attract employment, improvements, or investments that are consistent with policies of the Comprehensive Plan.

6. Upgrade or redevelop older sections of the City in order to improve conditions for all residents, enhance the overall image of the City, and provide for more compatible future uses of the land.

7. Adopt, implement, and enforce zoning and subdivision regulations to ensure sound development practices in new residential areas.

8. Ensure that all new residential development will be of a type and in a location compatible with area planning and recommendations.

9. Provide utilities in compliance with City codes for new residential development in the City.

10. Support cooperation between the City and regional higher education institutions to establish an outstanding university status in the Amarillo Metropolitan Area.

11. Encourage higher education institutions to provide advanced programs and cooperative research efforts.

12. Encourage the use of the Civic Center for shows, concerts, and other attractions to appeal to a variety of age groups and interests.

13. Encourage the development of services and programs to meet the psychological, social, recreational, transportation, and economic needs of Amarillo's youth, handicapped, and elderly population, e.g. adequate transportation services for senior citizens; day care centers for the elderly; elderly day care and child care programs supported by private industry as part of an employee benefit package.

14. Ensure that appointments to City boards and commissions effectively represent the population, i.e. geographic area, age, sex, race, and economic diversity.

15. Encourage cooperation between the City and all local school districts in the Amarillo area.

16. Support identified medical needs of the population and encourage the development of programs and facilities to meet those needs.